Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E0 0xe00d…4251 sports 1712 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 147d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,380 (-8%) realized −$3,380 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%1059W / 695L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$211est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days+$474
14 days+$474
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$2,348
crypto 8% −$412
other 7% −$345
world 0% −$166
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -41.3% -46.9% 33% 31% -2.6%
≤30d 334 -20.5% -28.1% 58% 41% -10.7%
≤90d 997 -12.3% -20.6% 57% 47% -18.3%
all 1754 -11.4% -19.8% 60% 48% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 48% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 33% -25.0%
15% -34.5% 21% -32.2%
20% -40.9% 13% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$3,380
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses1059 / 695
Est. fees paid−$211
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1754 / 1712
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1754 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee Erika Sema 33¢ 58¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+76%)
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Santiago De La Fuente 38¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Franco Ribero 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Hobart International: Antonia Ruzic vs Solana Sierra Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 4AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 11AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Heat vs. Pistons Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Maryland Terrapins Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte (BO3) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Heat Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Pacers vs. Pistons Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 6? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Hawks vs. Raptors Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Truck Drivers vs Sangal ALTERS (BO3) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Flyers vs. Golden Knights Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Adelaide International: Victoria Mboko vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Celtics vs. Pistons Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Lakers Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ducks vs. Kings Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Boise State Broncos vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 5-11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Ducks Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Raptors Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Adelaide International: Damir Dzumhur vs Alexander Shevchenko Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Kings Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. Wizards Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $1 +$2 +205%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 38¢ $1 25m
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov BUY Franco Ribero 24¢ $1 44m
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Jerome Kym 100¢ $3 47m
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 32¢ $1 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 40¢ $1 1h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee SELL Gerard Campana Lee 100¢ $3 1h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Gerard Campana Lee 32¢ $1 3h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux SELL Cosme de Ravel 99¢ $5 3h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Cosme de Ravel 36¢ $1 4h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Cosme de Ravel 42¢ $1 4h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Mackenzie McDonald 14¢ $1 4h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 59¢ $1 4h
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand BUY Robin Bertrand 13¢ $1 5h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Dane Sweeny 22¢ $1 5h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Marco Cecchinato 99¢ $9 5h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 32¢ $3 7h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 65¢ $3 7h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta BUY Andres Santamarta 49¢ $3 8h
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 40¢ $5 9h
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma BUY Matteo Covato 23¢ $1 10h
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka BUY Chase Ferguson 27¢ $1 10h
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee BUY Erika Sema 33¢ $1 13h
ITF Tokyo: Yuto Oki vs Shinji Hazawa SELL Shinji Hazawa 2¢ $0 13h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 34¢ $1 13h
ITF Tokyo: Yuto Oki vs Shinji Hazawa BUY Shinji Hazawa 21¢ $1 14h
ITF Taipei: Ayano Shimizu vs Yuki Naito BUY Ayano Shimizu 37¢ $1 14h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 38¢ $1 14h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 94¢ $7 14h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 84¢ $6 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.60 · official $2.60 (match) · 3500 history records