Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:31:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe013…6c26 weather 672 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 102d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$612 (+1%) realized +$564 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%639W / 27L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$953now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$4
14 days+$13
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$837
world 2% +$33
sports 1% $0
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +0.8% -8.8% 85% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 213 +1.0% -8.6% 95% 1% -9.6%
≤90d 616 +1.3% -8.4% 96% 1% -9.2%
all 666 +1.5% -8.1% 96% 1% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 1% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 1% -17.2%
15% -25.0% 1% -25.2%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$32 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$953
Realized+$564
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses639 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)666 / 672
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$106
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 666 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $297 $299 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $223 $225 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? No 94¢ 99¢ $137 $144 +$7 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? No 63¢ 92¢ $75 $111 +$36 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? No 98¢ 100¢ $93 $95 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $78 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $134 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 19 $148 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or below on June 19? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $198 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 19? Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $148 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $293 −$19 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $135 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $177 −$23 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? Jun 16 $259 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $99 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 15 $395 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $61 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $166 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $99 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $175 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? Jun 13 $64 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $286 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $90 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 13? Jun 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $72 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $216 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $248 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 10 $295 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 12? Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 11? Jun 10 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Jun 10 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 12? Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on June Jun 05 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 31m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $138 36m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 63¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $55 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $150 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $37 10h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $99 11h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $62 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $13 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $14 13h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 95¢ $27 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 96¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 96¢ $19 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 96¢ $53 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $30 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $64 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $200 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $18 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $13 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $29 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $27 25h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $148 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $40 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $297 25h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $25 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $952.56 · official $952.56 (match) · 3500 history records