Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:46:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe015…1cdc other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$84 (-1%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%44W / 78L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$84
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$92
other 31% +$1
sports 15% −$1
politics 13% −$2
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% +$1
culture 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 27 -2.2% -11.5% 37% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 40 -4.6% -13.7% 28% 0% -10.4%
all 122 -0.9% -10.3% 36% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -10.3%
10% -18.9% 2% -18.9%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses44 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage460d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 75¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $242 −$2 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $80 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $176 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $80 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $530 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $160 −$84 -52%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $331 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $360 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $155 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $331 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $14 −$1 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $225 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $155 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $173 +$1 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $156 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $157 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $339 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $83 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $163 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $154 −$6 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $68 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $74 $0 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $69 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $76 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 25 $181 −$2 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $22 −$4 -17%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $545 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $49 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $957 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $1,052 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $1,054 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $29 −$2 -8%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 15 $8 $0 -4%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $78 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $80 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $55 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $55 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $25 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $88 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $88 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $9 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $71 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $80 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $88 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $88 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $57 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $82 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $81 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $80 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $80 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $80 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $55 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $80 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $80 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $80 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.00 (match) · 476 history records