Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:41:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe017…829f other 201 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-0%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%19W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$22
other 25% −$24
sports 24% −$15
crypto 8% −$32
culture 5% −$3
world 4% −$2
economics 3% −$3
finance 2% −$21
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 104 -0.6% -10.0% 6% 0% -9.9%
all 200 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses19 / 181
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)200 / 201
History coverage169d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 93¢ 92¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $92 −$1 -2%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 23 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $482 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $56 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 21 $50 $0 -1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $133 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $161 −$1 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $103 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 20 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $273 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 18 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $159 −$1 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $130 −$1 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $214 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $155 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $296 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 14 $60 −$1 -2%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 14 $107 −$2 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $173 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 12 $252 $0 -0%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $56 −$1 -3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 09 $120 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $65 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $106 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $95 $0 -0%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 07 $50 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $298 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $107 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $67 1h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $40 11d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $41 11d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 23d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 23d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 91¢ $47 35d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $47 35d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $59 35d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $59 35d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $60 35d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $60 35d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $63 35d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $63 35d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $55 36d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $56 36d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $40 36d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $40 36d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $49 36d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 36d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $44 36d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $45 36d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $49 36d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $49 37d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $57 37d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $57 37d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $50 37d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $50 37d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $55 37d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $55 38d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $52 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.60 · official $66.60 (match) · 856 history records