Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E0 0xe01a…c972 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$234 (+31%) realized +$288 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$233
14 days+$233
30 days+$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$124
sports 16% +$55
crypto 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +18.0% +6.8% 40% 40% +26.0%
≤30d 10 +18.0% +6.8% 40% 40% +26.0%
≤90d 10 +18.0% +6.8% 40% 40% +26.0%
all 11 +7.3% -2.9% 36% 36% +24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 36% +24.6%
10% -12.2% 36% +12.6%
15% -20.7% 36% +1.8%
20% -28.5% 36% -8.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$28 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$288
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage103d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 28¢ $100 $47 −$53 (-53%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 +$98 +319%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 +$117 +114%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $71 +$113 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8? Mar 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $98 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 39h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 39h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 46h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 46h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $27 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $71 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.75 · official $90.77 (match) · 24 history records