Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe01a…c409 crypto 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-6%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%78W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$14
14 days−$17
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$10
weather 8% −$6
culture 7% −$4
other 5% −$1
world 4% $0
politics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -10.5% -19.0% 57% 43% -16.6%
≤30d 131 -3.8% -12.9% 60% 47% -16.7%
≤90d 131 -3.8% -12.9% 60% 47% -16.7%
all 131 -3.8% -12.9% 60% 47% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 47% -16.7%
10% -21.3% 37% -24.7%
15% -28.9% 31% -31.9%
20% -35.8% 21% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses78 / 53
Open positions13
Markets (closed)131 / 144
History coverage18d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 37¢ 74¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 0¢ 56¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+56%)
Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 57¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 35¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Connor Storrie be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Yes 74¢ 36¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-51%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Will Zohran Mamdani stream on Twitch again by June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 1m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.16 · official $9.66 · 389 history records