Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe01e…892a crypto 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate97%111W / 4L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$16
politics 24% +$12
tech 0% −$2
other 0% +$3
world 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
weather 0% +$1
culture 0% −$2
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 26 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 115 +1.1% -8.5% 97% 16% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 16% -9.4%
10% -17.3% 7% -18.0%
15% -25.3% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.43 per $1 lost it wins $3.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses111 / 4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)115 / 120
History coverage592d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 19 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 12? Jun 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 10 $105 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 06 $4 $0 +2%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? May 31 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 11? May 12 $186 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? May 05 $6 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on April 23? Apr 26 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 17? Apr 22 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 12? Apr 16 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? Apr 05 $191 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $116 in March? Apr 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Google dip to $215 in March? Apr 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 28? Mar 28 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 19 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? Mar 14 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 10? Mar 11 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 8? Mar 09 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 06 $189 +$1 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Mar 02 $2 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $185 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 14? Feb 15 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 8? Feb 09 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on February 3? Feb 05 $176 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in January? Feb 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 1? Feb 02 $175 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $4 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $175 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $6 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $7 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $104 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $104 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $105 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $172 28d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 98¢ $4 35d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $3 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $186 40d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $4 41d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $5 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $177 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $184 58d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 58d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $186 64d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $182 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $188 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $186 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $180 73d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? BUY No 97¢ $6 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $191 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $187 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $188 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $182 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $184 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $180 90d
Will Google dip to $215 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.48 · official $112.48 (match) · 265 history records