Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E0 0xe01f…7303 other 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate16%13W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$2
politics 22% −$1
sports 6% −$1
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 +6.8% -3.3% 21% 7% -7.0%
≤90d 79 +1.7% -8.0% 16% 13% -9.7%
all 79 +1.7% -8.0% 16% 13% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 13% -9.7%
10% -16.8% 13% -18.3%
15% -24.8% 11% -26.2%
20% -32.2% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses13 / 66
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage89d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $148 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $194 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $144 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $85 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $77 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $73 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $116 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 09 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 13h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 14h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $21 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 23d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 23d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $14 24d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 27d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Cleveland Guardians 50¢ $10 29d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.37 · official $46.37 (match) · 209 history records