Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe01f…7d05 sports 18 markets active 5d ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$822 (-14%) realized −$822 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,228
14 days−$1,640
30 days−$820
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$853
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 15 -1.8% -11.2% 47% 47% -27.1%
≤90d 18 +5.0% -5.0% 50% 50% -23.1%
all 18 +5.0% -5.0% 50% 50% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 50% -23.1%
10% -14.1% 44% -30.5%
15% -22.4% 44% -37.2%
20% -30.0% 44% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$252 vs −$347 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$822
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage48d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $690 −$682 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $559 −$546 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $464 −$457 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $406 +$445 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $404 −$400 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $253 −$250 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $306 +$696 +227%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $386 +$496 +129%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $202 +$131 +65%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $273 −$268 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $25 +$21 +83%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $152 +$107 +70%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 21 $11 +$10 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $23 −$22 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $77 +$151 +197%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 14 $999 +$213 +21%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 30 $400 −$397 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $487 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $202 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $358 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $107 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $305 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $102 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $303 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $101 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $202 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $51 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $216 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $170 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 15¢ $47 20d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $202 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 22¢ $25 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 22¢ $27 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 41¢ $153 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 41¢ $69 22d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 54¢ $25 23d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 58¢ $152 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $101 26d
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $11 28d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 18¢ $23 28d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $77 30d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 31¢ $255 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records