Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe01f…ff34 sports 314 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$308 (-5%) realized −$308 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%210W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$77
14 days+$77
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$201
crypto 23% −$55
weather 12% +$16
other 2% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 60% -0.4%
≤30d 65 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 60% -0.4%
≤90d 314 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 50% -13.7%
all 314 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 50% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 50% -13.7%
10% -18.9% 39% -21.9%
15% -26.7% 26% -29.5%
20% -33.9% 17% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$308
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses210 / 104
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)314 / 314
History coverage86d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 314 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $22 +$15 +68%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 +$15 +44%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 +$9 +84%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 +$3 +31%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 +$8 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$6 +116%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 +$5 +48%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $11 +$4 +38%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 +$7 +59%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 +$18 +158%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 +$9 +80%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $11 +$4 +34%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $11 +$3 +26%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $11 +$5 +42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $11 +$6 +55%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 +$9 +79%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $56 +$37 +66%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 +$4 +34%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $11 +$2 +20%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $22 +$11 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 +$6 +58%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $11 +$7 +66%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$7 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 +$8 +51%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$9 +58%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +27%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$10 +64%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $0 $0 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $37 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $48 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $33 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $11 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $21 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 98¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $11 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $11 2h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $11 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $16 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $5 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $11 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $11 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $11 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $11 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 91¢ $15 16h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 840 history records