Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:35:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe021…234f crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate82%14W / 3L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$1
economics 36% +$3
politics 11% +$8
tech 2% $0
world 2% +$1
other 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 17 +3.0% -6.8% 82% 6% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 6% -8.5%
10% -15.7% 0% -17.3%
15% -23.9% 0% -25.3%
20% -31.3% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×10.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×48.73 per $1 lost it wins $48.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses14 / 3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)17 / 23
History coverage542d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? Yes 98¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Jun 24 $137 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 02 $137 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 12 $137 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 28 $137 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $237 $0 +0%
Ryan Reynolds & Blake Lively divorce in 2025? Jan 21 $3 $0 +10%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Jan 21 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Pixelworks (PXLW) beat quarterly earnings? Dec 15 $2 $0 +11%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Dec 15 $11 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $115 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 10 $117 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 10 $116 +$7 +6%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 24 $3 $0 +2%
Will Google have the second best AI model on October 31? Oct 14 $20 $0 -1%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 14 $3 $0 -2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Oct 02 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Mar 28 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $76 1h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $12 1h
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $137 114d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $137 114d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $137 132d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $137 147d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $137 147d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $137 148d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $137 148d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $122 154d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $12 188d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $89 188d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $115 191d
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect BUY Yes 92¢ $18 191d
Ryan Reynolds & Blake Lively divorce in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $2 211d
Will Pixelworks (PXLW) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 226d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $115 226d
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft BUY Yes 97¢ $11 239d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 91¢ $12 239d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 94¢ $116 242d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? SELL No 100¢ $112 242d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? SELL No 99¢ $3 242d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $3 252d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $117 253d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.46 · official $134.46 (match) · 51 history records