Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E0 0xe022…7d0f sports 456 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$110 (-2%) realized −$99 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%167W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days−$50
14 days−$208
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$34
other 30% −$118
world 3% +$15
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -8.4% -17.2% 27% 27% -17.8%
≤30d 378 -4.8% -13.8% 39% 36% -10.9%
≤90d 434 -4.4% -13.5% 38% 36% -9.9%
all 434 -4.4% -13.5% 38% 36% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 36% -9.9%
10% -21.8% 32% -18.5%
15% -29.3% 26% -26.4%
20% -36.3% 23% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$99
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses167 / 267
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions22
Markets (closed)434 / 456
History coverage37d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 434 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $18 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 246 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$20 +388%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +250%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 +$22 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$17 +276%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 +$42 +568%
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Anna-Lena Friedsam Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $5 +$17 +325%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Daniel Merida Aguila Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Martos: Rafael Izquierdo Luque vs Joao Domingues Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$14 +249%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $21 −$2 -11%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $10 +$5 +50%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $8 −$8 -99%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Dalila Spiteri vs Laura Svatikova Jun 10 $5 +$16 +307%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Azerbaijan vs. San Marino end in a draw? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 55m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 56m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 57m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 57m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 58m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 58m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 59m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 59m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 8h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 13h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 30¢ $5 19h
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Dominick Mosejczuk 34¢ $5 22h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $5 33h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 33h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $5 33h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 33h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 33h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 33h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 34h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 34h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $49 34h
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Anna-Lena Friedsam BUY Anna-Lena Friedsam 53¢ $5 41h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.71 · official $121.65 (match) · 713 history records