Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:45:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe023…61a6 sports 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$185 (-1%) realized −$176 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate64%150W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$178
14 days−$332
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$239
other 31% −$410
crypto 8% +$11
finance 4% −$148
world 1% −$17
politics 1% −$9
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -29.8% -36.5% 50% 11% -15.6%
≤30d 70 -12.3% -20.7% 60% 26% -12.7%
≤90d 182 -8.2% -16.9% 63% 30% -12.1%
all 234 -5.0% -14.0% 64% 33% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 33% -11.0%
10% -22.2% 19% -19.5%
15% -29.8% 10% -27.3%
20% -36.6% 6% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$26 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$176
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses150 / 84
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions1
Markets (closed)234 / 235
History coverage225d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $279 $270 −$9 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -51%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $276 +$14 +5%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $496 +$41 +8%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $199 +$33 +16%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $185 +$13 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $183 +$7 +4%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $62 −$21 -34%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $185 −$69 -37%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $264 +$5 +2%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $251 +$13 +5%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $311 +$17 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $95 −$95 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $95 +$104 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire Jun 07 $255 −$186 -73%
Will England win? Jun 07 $324 +$52 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 06 $35 −$33 -93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $201 +$21 +11%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 06 $159 −$103 -65%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $66 −$40 -61%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire Jun 05 $98 +$31 +32%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $188 −$2 -1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $94 −$59 -62%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $89 −$23 -26%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $35 −$28 -81%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Kagiso Rabada win the 2026 IPL purple cap? May 31 $112 +$8 +7%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands May 31 $94 +$7 +7%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $94 +$6 +6%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $13 +$1 +8%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh May 30 $191 +$10 +5%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Leicestershire May 29 $7 −$2 -32%
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Nottinghamshire May 29 $133 +$26 +20%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $80 +$17 +22%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $83 −$6 -7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $820 +$61 +7%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Derbyshire May 27 $118 +$18 +15%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $92 +$8 +8%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Leicestershire May 24 $80 +$20 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 2m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $288 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $290 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 10h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $275 20h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $273 21h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $261 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $260 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 25h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 25h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $230 44h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $231 45h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $75 45h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $124 47h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $198 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $185 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $189 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $98 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 40¢ $7 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 40¢ $24 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 40¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $45 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 70¢ $29 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.09 · official $270.09 (match) · 734 history records