Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E0 0xe024…0762 sports 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,561 (+7%) realized +$1,532 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate63%93W / 54L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$481
7 days+$481
14 days+$852
30 days+$1,772
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$1,693
other 17% +$444
finance 8% −$22
tech 5% −$703
politics 3% −$9
economics 3% +$23
culture 3% +$5
world 2% −$24
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +53.8% +39.1% 100% 100% +16.8%
≤30d 20 +16.8% +5.7% 65% 65% +9.8%
≤90d 57 -47.8% -52.8% 26% 26% -3.0%
all 147 -1.1% -10.5% 63% 25% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 25% -3.1%
10% -19.1% 21% -12.4%
15% -26.9% 16% -20.9%
20% -34.0% 14% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$65 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized+$1,532
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses93 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions2
Markets (closed)147 / 149
History coverage196d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $316 $342 +$26 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 94¢ 100¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $48 +$12 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$50 +101%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,335 +$265 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 16 $219 +$154 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $506 +$371 +73%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $166 +$134 +81%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1,510 +$405 +27%
Will "SpaceX" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po Jun 02 $73 −$72 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $316 −$315 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $249 −$248 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $339 +$161 +48%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 29 $246 +$354 +144%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $1,105 +$383 +35%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $177 +$223 +126%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $265 −$263 -99%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $213 −$29 -14%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $781 +$219 +28%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $561 −$46 -8%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 20 $1,009 −$179 -18%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $108 +$192 +178%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $204 −$204 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $276 +$324 +117%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $419 −$409 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $56 −$56 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 23 $400 +$661 +165%
Will the match end in a draw? Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
SA20: Paarl Royals vs Joburg Super Kings (Game 1) Apr 23 $12 −$12 -100%
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Pakistan (Game 1) Apr 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8 Apr 23 $645 −$631 -98%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Apr 23 $346 −$346 -100%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
T20 World Cup: Nepal vs Scotland (Game 1) Apr 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Johnson & Johnson say "Europe" during earnings call? Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Apr 23 $21 −$21 -100%
India ODI Series: India vs South Africa (Game 3) Apr 23 $45 −$45 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistan Apr 23 $50 −$15 -30%
Will Russia capture Zarichne by February 28, 2026? Apr 23 $12 −$12 -100%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Oman (Game 1) Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals Apr 23 $20 −$3 -16%
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said during the first episod Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 23 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $318 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $48 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $334 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $334 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $334 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $334 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 26h
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 57¢ $506 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 54¢ $108 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 57¢ $58 14d
Will "SpaceX" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po BUY Yes 65¢ $13 15d
Will "SpaceX" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po BUY Yes 64¢ $60 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 86¢ $502 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 75¢ $1,007 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 29¢ $59 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 33¢ $41 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 33¢ $2 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 33¢ $17 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 33¢ $2 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 33¢ $3 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 37¢ $67 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 37¢ $1 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 37¢ $6 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 40¢ $80 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 37¢ $37 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca SELL Joao Fonseca 63¢ $124 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca SELL Joao Fonseca 62¢ $248 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 36¢ $28 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 36¢ $32 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 36¢ $7 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.85 · official $391.85 (match) · 686 history records