Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe025…102f sports 691 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,969 (+13%) realized +$12,969 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%358W / 333L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$310est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$327
7 days+$6,057
14 days+$7,470
30 days+$7,470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$9,835
other 12% +$4,284
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.4% -14.4% 45% 45% +7.9%
≤30d 27 +14.2% +3.3% 48% 48% +10.5%
≤90d 30 +12.1% +1.4% 47% 47% +11.3%
all 691 +9.4% -1.0% 52% 52% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 52% +3.2%
10% -10.5% 51% -6.7%
15% -19.1% 51% -15.7%
20% -27.1% 51% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$138 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12,969
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses358 / 333
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$310
Open positions0
Markets (closed)691 / 691
History coverage256d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 691 Trades
no open positions (321 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $2,554 +$1,340 +52%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $1,337 +$1,834 +137%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $2,574 −$2,550 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $721 +$646 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $668 −$657 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $492 −$483 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $569 −$559 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $553 +$683 +124%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $592 −$582 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $2,128 +$1,560 +73%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $1,447 −$1,424 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $1,145 +$1,253 +109%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2,281 +$1,886 +83%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $4,386 +$7,785 +178%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $298 −$291 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $499 −$488 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,363 +$2,253 +165%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $936 −$923 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2,046 −$2,021 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,174 −$3,148 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $768 −$767 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $689 +$2,238 +325%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $184 +$534 +291%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $819 −$806 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $616 −$608 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $64 +$55 +86%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Pedro Martinez vs Pablo Carreno Busta Apr 18 $198 +$356 +180%
Bucks vs. Pistons Apr 08 $7 −$7 -97%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 08 $9 −$9 -97%
Mexican Open: Sebastian Korda vs Mattia Bellucci Feb 24 $500 −$143 -29%
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers: O/U Feb 20 $100 +$108 +108%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Barbora Krejcikova vs Amanda Ani Feb 17 $2 $0 -2%
Sonego vs. Berrettini: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Feb 16 $145 −$3 -2%
Rio Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Matteo Berrettini Feb 16 $284 −$6 -2%
Cristian vs. Mboko: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Feb 16 $694 −$198 -29%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Victoria M Feb 16 $355 −$7 -2%
Spread: Vermont Catamounts (-7.5) Feb 09 $100 +$100 +100%
Morehead State Eagles vs. Southeast Missouri State Redhawks: O/U 145.5 Feb 09 $100 +$100 +100%
Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5 Feb 09 $100 +$108 +108%
Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 09 $100 +$108 +108%
Bulls vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5 Feb 09 $100 +$113 +113%
Elon Phoenix vs. Hampton Pirates Feb 09 $100 +$117 +117%
Spread: Albany Great Danes (-1.5) Feb 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC: O/U 3.5 Feb 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Albany Great Danes vs. Bryant Bulldogs: O/U 134.5 Feb 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Set Handicap: Tauson (-1.5) vs Kessler (+1.5) Feb 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: UNC Asheville Bulldogs (-7.5) Feb 05 $100 +$108 +108%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Feb 05 $100 +$133 +133%
Wang vs. Masarova: Match O/U 21.5 Feb 04 $100 +$85 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $91 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $442 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2,021 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $2,574 6h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 42¢ $116 6h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1,221 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 47¢ $48 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 47¢ $620 23h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $721 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $492 26h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $569 26h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $553 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $592 29h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2,128 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1,447 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,145 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2,281 3d
England leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $12,170 3d
England leading at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $153 3d
England leading at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $14 3d
England leading at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $15 3d
England leading at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $34 3d
England leading at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $1 3d
England leading at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $27 3d
England leading at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $73 3d
England leading at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $108 3d
England leading at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $11 3d
England leading at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $22 3d
England leading at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $970 3d
England leading at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1492 history records