Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe026…0404 sports 1266 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 144d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$390 (-1%) realized −$398 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%608W / 659L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$550est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$73
14 days−$153
30 days−$2,368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$767
other 3% +$152
world 1% −$227
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +4.0% -5.9% 45% 45% -13.2%
≤30d 358 -6.8% -15.7% 45% 45% -21.6%
≤90d 805 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% -10.6%
all 1267 -2.5% -11.8% 48% 46% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 46% -11.3%
10% -20.2% 45% -19.8%
15% -27.9% 42% -27.5%
20% -35.0% 36% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$31 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$398
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses608 / 659
Est. fees paid−$550
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1267 / 1266
History coverage144d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A 9INE 47¢ 48¢ $81 $83 +$2 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B OG 51¢ 52¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group B ECHO 59¢ 58¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 65¢ 77¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+18%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ 32¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 392 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2025-12-06? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Charlton Athletic FC vs. Portsmouth FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Charlton Athletic FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $5 +$56 +1049%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $53 +$55 +105%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 20 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $87 −$87 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $66 −$66 -99%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $15 +$15 +96%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $84 +$68 +81%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $74 +$78 +105%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $148 +$55 +37%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $63 +$45 +72%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $73 −$72 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $78 +$62 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $85 +$31 +36%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) Jun 18 $3 +$2 +73%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $74 +$33 +45%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 18 $36 +$64 +180%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $35 +$25 +70%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $72 +$36 +50%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $55 +$57 +104%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Game Handicap: REF (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) Jun 17 $63 −$62 -99%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 16 $53 −$52 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $52 +$22 +42%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 16 $45 −$44 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $7 +$5 +75%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $44 −$43 -99%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $42 −$41 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $47 +$28 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $34 +$40 +119%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $28 +$46 +163%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $24 +$21 +89%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +96%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 14 $52 −$51 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $23 +$15 +64%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $0 38m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $30 38m
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY ECHO 59¢ $17 57m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY ECHO 59¢ $65 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 47¢ $52 3h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 51¢ $25 11h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 51¢ $56 16h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY TDK 48¢ $53 38h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 21¢ $21 46h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 63¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 64¢ $75 2d
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY GenOne 29¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $66 2d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 58¢ $63 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $73 3d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 39¢ $5 4d
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) BUY Power Rangers 57¢ $3 4d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $21 4d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $57 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 73¢ $74 4d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 69¢ $74 4d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 48¢ $21 4d
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Team Resilience 35¢ $36 4d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 48¢ $54 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 72¢ $30 5d
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 72¢ $43 5d
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.13 · official $272.13 (match) · 3500 history records