Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E0 0xe027…6cbb sports 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$124 (-6%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%53W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$249
14 days−$163
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$95
crypto 23% −$59
other 3% −$2
politics 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +3.2% -6.6% 50% 47% -33.1%
≤30d 118 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 41% -16.3%
≤90d 118 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 41% -16.3%
all 118 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 41% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 41% -16.3%
10% -24.7% 36% -24.3%
15% -32.0% 29% -31.6%
20% -38.6% 24% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses53 / 65
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 123
History coverage19d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 42¢ 42¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$17 +84%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $12 +$14 +114%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $17 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $83 −$18 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $41 −$9 -21%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $20 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$6 +19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $97 −$37 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$3 -13%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $46 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$7 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $45 −$40 -88%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -61%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $61 −$20 -32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $158 −$156 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$5 +36%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$2 -41%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +132%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +84%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 +$3 +68%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$14 +89%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$16 +53%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$16 +52%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$6 +197%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$4 -75%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$7 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $14 −$9 -67%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$6 +28%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$3 +17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 +$23 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$3 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $12 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 42¢ $12 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $10 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $51 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.75 · official $36.75 (match) · 316 history records