Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:55:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe028…ac6c other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-7%) realized −$53 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%9W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$245
sports 36% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-55.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -50.4% -55.1% 27% 27% -26.3%
≤30d 33 -50.4% -55.1% 27% 27% -26.3%
≤90d 33 -50.4% -55.1% 27% 27% -26.3%
all 33 -50.4% -55.1% 27% 27% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.1% 27% -26.3%
10% -59.4% 27% -33.4%
15% -63.3% 27% -39.8%
20% -66.9% 21% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$18 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)33 / 43
History coverage4d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $120 $100 −$20 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 48¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-36%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 22¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-56%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 13¢ 24¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+81%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 +$12 +40%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 +$10 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 +$31 +124%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$36 -70%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$19 +93%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$21 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$32 +105%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $30 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $41 5h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $25 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $25 17h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 24h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 19¢ $15 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 28¢ $5 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $15 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 27h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.27 · official $325.27 (match) · 99 history records