Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E0 0xe02f…5591 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate58%23W / 17L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$1
other 27% +$2
finance 14% +$1
politics 12% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 30% 10% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 30% 10% -9.7%
all 40 +0.3% -9.3% 58% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 5% -9.1%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses23 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage460d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 85¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $1 $0 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $41 +$2 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $85 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $14 −$2 -13%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $25 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 +15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 22 $35 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Dec 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $11 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? May 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 05 $4 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum May 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $1 $0 -20%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Apr 12 $11 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 02 $3 $0 +14%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Apr 01 $16 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $15 +$1 +10%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 15 $14 $0 +3%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 15 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $46 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 60¢ $32 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 61¢ $32 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $42 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $5 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $35 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $44 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 27¢ $11 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 27¢ $1 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 31¢ $14 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $3 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $37 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $41 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $25 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $1 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $0 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $1 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $34 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $11 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $24 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.90 · official $45.90 (match) · 112 history records