Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E0 0xe033…40a5 economics 24 markets active 8h ago coverage 97d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable economics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 97d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$37,127 (+70%) realized +$30,327 · open +$6,800
Gross ROI / mkt +176% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +104% what you keep after slip
Net edge+104%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,219per market
Trades / day35.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$20,031now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
economics 96% −$23,697
politics 3% +$276
other 1% +$777
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+149.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 15 +193.9% +165.9% 20% 20% -98.9%
all 16 +175.5% +149.3% 19% 19% -98.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +149.3% 19% -98.9%
10% +125.4% 19% -99.0%
15% ← realistic here +103.6% 12% -99.1%
20% +83.7% 12% -99.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -116% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +175% · $-wt -116% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +172% → late +179% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
116.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$2,351 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$20,031
Realized+$30,327
Unrealized+$6,800
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Open positions13
Markets (closed)16 / 24
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$2,219
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $7,571 $8,642 +$1,071 (+14%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 10¢ 24¢ $2,921 $7,067 +$4,145 (+142%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? No 49¢ 95¢ $692 $1,329 +$637 (+92%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes 34¢ $111 $1,296 +$1,186 (+1072%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes $708 $1,219 +$511 (+72%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 15¢ 82¢ $61 $329 +$268 (+439%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? Yes 20¢ $273 $73 −$200 (-73%)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? Yes 19¢ $11 $31 +$19 (+169%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 15¢ 56¢ $7 $28 +$20 (+272%)
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes $128 $15 −$112 (-88%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 63¢ $109 $2 −$108 (-99%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 36¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+172%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 18 $0 +$154 +93009%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 18 $478 −$614 -128%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Jun 18 $331 −$331 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Jun 18 $166 −$166 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 04 $1,916 −$1,885 -98%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? May 19 $60 −$58 -98%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 12 $5,253 −$6,602 -126%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 06 $21 +$6 +28%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $22,364 −$19,274 -86%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Apr 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Apr 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J Apr 05 $95 −$18 -20%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 03 $1,600 −$1,342 -84%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Mar 23 $22 +$3 +15%
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? Mar 21 $151 −$151 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $20 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $20 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $33 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $8 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $10 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $17 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $26 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $5 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $5 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $3 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $10 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $0 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $10 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $40 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $20 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $10 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $20 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $20 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $4 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $20 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 40¢ $1,334 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 39¢ $1,200 9h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 17¢ $695 9h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 16¢ $598 9h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 37¢ $7 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 37¢ $0 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 37¢ $1,519 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 36¢ $3 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 36¢ $4 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 36¢ $32 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,030.96 · official $20,029.98 (match) · 3500 history records