Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E0 0xe035…084e crypto 1466 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$100 (-2%) realized −$113 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%728W / 500L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day54.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$240
7 days+$230
14 days+$455
30 days+$479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$504
sports 1% −$17
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 289 +13.4% +2.6% 63% 62% +1.5%
≤30d 1228 +11.3% +0.7% 59% 59% +1.5%
≤90d 1228 +11.3% +0.7% 59% 59% +1.5%
all 1228 +11.3% +0.7% 59% 59% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.7% 59% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here -9.0% 57% -8.2%
15% -17.8% 55% -17.1%
20% -25.8% 50% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses728 / 500
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1228 / 1466
History coverage27d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day54.8
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 47¢ 100¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+112%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 43¢ 52¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$22 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$17 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$42 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$14 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$19 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.38 · official $33.38 (match) · 2197 history records