trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 37¢ | 36¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $44 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $8 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 09 | $30 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Dec 18 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | Oct 06 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Sep 18 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? | Sep 17 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Sep 17 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? | Sep 16 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? | Sep 16 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Solana reach $350 in September? | Sep 16 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? | Sep 15 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Sep 15 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | Sep 14 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Sep 14 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 13 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 13 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? | Sep 13 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? | Sep 13 | $3 | −$1 | -22% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Sep 08 | $34 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Mary Lou McDonald win the Irish Presidential Election? | Sep 02 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 02 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | Sep 02 | $34 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? | Sep 02 | $34 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 25% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 25% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 25% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 25 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 40% | 0% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.1% | 0% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -18.7% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -26.5% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -33.7% | 0% | -33.2% |