Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E0 0xe039…519d crypto 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$104 (+31%) realized +$108 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%13W / 59L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$117
sports 20% +$26
other 10% −$2
politics 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +50.0% +35.7% 18% 18% +30.5%
≤30d 72 +50.0% +35.7% 18% 18% +30.5%
≤90d 72 +50.0% +35.7% 18% 18% +30.5%
all 72 +50.0% +35.7% 18% 18% +30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.7% 18% +30.5%
10% ← realistic here +22.7% 18% +18.0%
15% +10.9% 18% +6.6%
20% +0.0% 17% -3.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +154% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$3 · ×8.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses13 / 59
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)72 / 77
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$50 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$29 +894%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$16 +1464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$30 +945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$13 +1241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$27 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $27 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.93 · official $37.93 (match) · 110 history records