Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:12:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe03b…b284 other 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$12
politics 21% −$5
sports 14% −$19
crypto 5% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 73 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 116 -3.4% -12.6% 12% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 4% -9.7%
10% -21.0% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 102
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage133d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $330 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $147 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $171 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $144 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $187 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $166 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $137 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $335 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $167 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $174 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $132 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $179 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $140 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $162 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $158 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $176 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $350 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $140 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $134 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $172 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 15 $154 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $330 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $344 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $342 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $212 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $134 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $310 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $134 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $175 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $153 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $192 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $169 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $372 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 4h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 22h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 29h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 6d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 10d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 21d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $147 22d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $147 27d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $171 27d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $171 29d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $144 29d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $144 30d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $187 31d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $187 31d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $166 32d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $166 32d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $159 33d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $159 34d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $137 34d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $137 34d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $167 36d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $167 36d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $175 37d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $175 38d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $167 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.99 (match) · 350 history records