Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:12:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E0 0xe040…7935 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$127 (+12%) realized +$127 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$14
politics 44% −$1
sports 3% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+60.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +77.0% +60.1% 75% 50% +0.6%
≤30d 4 +77.0% +60.1% 75% 50% +0.6%
≤90d 4 +77.0% +60.1% 75% 50% +0.6%
all 4 +77.0% +60.1% 75% 50% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +60.1% 50% +0.6%
10% +44.8% 25% -9.1%
15% +30.8% 25% -17.9%
20% +18.0% 25% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$1 · ×31.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×94.3 per $1 lost it wins $94.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage6d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? Jun 17 $449 −$1 -0%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Jun 17 $450 +$2 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Oxuji Esports (-3.5) vs Misa Esports (+3.5) Jun 12 $34 +$100 +294%
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Jun 11 $86 +$12 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $447 27m
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $449 1h
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $452 1h
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $450 3h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Oxuji Esports (-3.5) vs Misa Esports (+3.5) SELL Oxuji Esports 20¢ $64 5d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Oxuji Esports (-3.5) vs Misa Esports (+3.5) SELL Oxuji Esports 20¢ $70 5d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Oxuji Esports (-3.5) vs Misa Esports (+3.5) BUY Oxuji Esports 6¢ $20 6d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Oxuji Esports (-3.5) vs Misa Esports (+3.5) BUY Oxuji Esports 4¢ $14 6d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 6d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $45 6d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $50 6d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 6d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records