Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe040…824f other 471 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,921 (+19%) realized +$4,469 · open −$548
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate20%69W / 277L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day99.6pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$1,209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$6,194
sports 22% −$2,786
weather 18% +$12
crypto 2% −$92
world 0% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-67.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -63.7% -67.2% 3% 3% -93.8%
≤30d 292 -64.2% -67.6% 5% 5% -92.1%
≤90d 292 -64.2% -67.6% 5% 5% -92.1%
all 292 -64.2% -67.6% 5% 5% -92.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -67.6% 5% -92.1%
10% ← realistic here -70.7% 4% -92.9%
15% -73.5% 4% -93.6%
20% -76.1% 4% -94.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -94% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$33 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$1,209
Realized+$4,469
Unrealized−$548
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses69 / 277
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions250
Markets (closed)346 / 471
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day99.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 250 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? No 100¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? No 100¢ 99¢ $60 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? No 99¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21? No 98¢ 97¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? No 88¢ 90¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? No 65¢ 83¢ $39 $50 +$11 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? No 100¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? No 99¢ 96¢ $49 $47 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? No 72¢ 78¢ $43 $47 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? No 64¢ 68¢ $38 $41 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21? No 31¢ 73¢ $15 $36 +$21 (+135%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on June 21? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $31 +$31 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 21? No 99¢ 98¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? No 47¢ 50¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C or higher on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? No 96¢ 96¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21? No 97¢ 96¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 21? No 93¢ 94¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? No 83¢ 84¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 197 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Toulouse win? Jun 21 $0 $0 +200%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in third place in the first round of the 20 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in second place in the first round of Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Pre Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Thierno Barry be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-05-10? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jean-Philippe Mateta be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Englis Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Benjamin Sesko be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in third place in the first round of th Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. AZ end in a draw? Jun 21 $0 +$17 +13620%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 21 $1 −$30 -2256%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presi Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dominic Solanke be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Pre Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alfonso López Chau and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will José Williams finish in third place in the first round of the 202 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in second place in the first round of t Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Blues win? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Benetton Treviso win? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Hugo Ekitike be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premie Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 21 $42 −$96 -231%
Will Cole Palmer be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian pres Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Varbergs BoIS vs. Norrby IF end in a draw? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will César Acuña finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec Jun 21 $-1 +$1 —%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Perú Libre (PL) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber o Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Richarlison be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in fourth place in the first round of the Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Samsunspor leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2 Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in second place in the first round of t Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will George Forsyth finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Kenya leading at halftime? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Highlanders win? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-09? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Racing 92 win? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Somos Perú (SP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber o Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in fourth place in the first round of t Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-05-10? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $30 0m
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $29 0m
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 0m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 64¢ $19 0m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 87¢ $26 1m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 1m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 1m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 1m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 2m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 2m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $29 2m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $28 2m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $13 2m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY No 11¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $13 2m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $12 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $12 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? BUY No 87¢ $10 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $12 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $12 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY No 36¢ $4 3m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 3m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 3m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY No 18¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $29 5m
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 5m
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 47¢ $14 5m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $30 5m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $18 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,208.80 · official $1,198.14 (match) · 3500 history records