Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:13:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E0 0xe047…fa88 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 30L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$8
other 20% +$4
politics 18% +$1
weather 4% +$2
sports 4% $0
finance 4% $0
crypto 2% +$2
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 30% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 36% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 21 +0.5% -9.0% 38% 0% -8.6%
all 48 +0.4% -9.1% 38% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.77 per $1 lost it wins $5.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage323d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $34 +$1 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $61 +$5 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $63 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $58 −$2 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $29 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $59 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $48 +$4 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $70 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15? Aug 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Aug 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the DC Crime Press Confere Aug 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 10 $1 $0 -6%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Aug 10 $51 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 10 $61 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $61 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? Aug 07 $65 +$2 +3%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 06 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8? Aug 05 $58 +$4 +6%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 05 $58 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $38 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $38 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $35 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $11 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $23 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $28 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $9 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $37 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $20 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $17 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $33 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $33 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $5 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $29 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $37 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $33 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $33 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $34 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records