trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.6% | -10.0% | 0% | 0% | -10.3% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 31% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 31% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 27 | -4.9% | -13.9% | 41% | 0% | -11.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.9% | 0% | -11.5% |
| 10% | -22.2% | 0% | -20.0% |
| 15% | -29.7% | 0% | -27.7% |
| 20% | -36.6% | 0% | -34.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | $32 | $32 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $32 | $0 | -1% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 15 | $35 | $0 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 15 | $10 | −$1 | -14% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 13 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $33 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $32 | +$2 | +5% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 09 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 09 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $68 | $0 | -1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $20 | $0 | +2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 06 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 05 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will another coalition form the next German Government? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? | Apr 15 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 14 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 13 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? | Apr 12 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? | Apr 11 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? | Apr 10 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? | Apr 08 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? | Mar 25 | $4 | −$1 | -23% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Mar 24 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? | Mar 20 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? | Mar 17 | $12 | $0 | -0% |