Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E0 0xe048…cbdb crypto 357 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$41 (+1%) realized +$36 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%338W / 7L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$2
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$42
politics 5% +$6
finance 2% −$17
other 1% +$2
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 263 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 345 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 345 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -9.0%
all 345 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 0% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses338 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)345 / 357
History coverage12d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 92¢ 94¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 97¢ 96¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic pr Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $11 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.37 · official $230.99 (match) · 711 history records