Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe04a…9eb8 sports 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$110 (-8%) realized −$105 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%90W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$53
14 days+$4
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$57
other 17% −$43
world 10% −$6
tech 3% −$13
politics 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +34.1% +21.3% 64% 64% +45.7%
≤30d 64 -11.2% -19.7% 39% 38% -11.9%
≤90d 204 -24.5% -31.7% 34% 32% -23.9%
all 236 -15.4% -23.4% 38% 36% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 36% -16.9%
10% -30.7% 36% -24.9%
15% -37.4% 33% -32.2%
20% -43.6% 28% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses90 / 146
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)236 / 239
History coverage175d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4ikibamboni 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $10 +$6 +62%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $5 +$6 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $10 −$4 -36%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $3 +$2 +52%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $15 +$24 +158%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$4 +44%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $1 +$2 +188%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $4 +$7 +172%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $5 +$4 +73%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $16 +$7 +46%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -22%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4 $0 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $98 −$5 -5%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$4 +122%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$3 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $5 +$6 +114%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$10 +97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -33%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $10 +$5 +50%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $7 +$3 +42%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $4 +$3 +74%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $1 +$2 +179%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Rostikfacekid Club vs VooDooSh Club (BO3) - Winline Star Serie Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $6 +$5 +84%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? May 30 $1 $0 -10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $15 −$11 -69%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 −$4 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Yellow Submarine 73¢ $16 12m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $11 12m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 45¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $39 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 41¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 65¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 38¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 69¢ $10 20h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 34¢ $1 42h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 6¢ $1 43h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 9¢ $1 44h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 38¢ $3 45h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $11 46h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 36¢ $4 46h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $9 46h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 57¢ $5 47h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $24 47h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 62¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 71¢ $11 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $28 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 7¢ $1 6d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $20 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.56 · official $35.56 (match) · 647 history records