Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E0 0xe04b…7864 crypto 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,820 (-16%) realized −$2,820 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%31W / 25L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$208
7 days+$208
14 days+$208
30 days+$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,725
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -10.8% -19.3% 58% 46% -2.3%
≤30d 26 -10.8% -19.3% 58% 46% -2.3%
≤90d 35 -11.9% -20.3% 54% 46% -33.0%
all 56 -13.0% -21.3% 55% 46% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 46% -23.9%
10% -28.8% 38% -31.2%
15% -35.7% 25% -37.8%
20% -42.0% 12% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$231 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,820
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses31 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage159d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $203 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $203 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $308 +$59 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $205 −$82 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$46 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $206 +$34 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $307 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $108 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $108 +$85 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$40 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $76 +$26 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $205 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $111 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $129 −$11 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$10 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 24 $567 −$567 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 24 $816 −$816 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 24 $412 −$412 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 24 $323 −$323 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 24 $405 +$162 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 24 $322 +$89 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 24 $709 −$709 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 24 $598 +$133 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 24 $161 +$441 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 13 $1,288 +$40 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 13 $847 −$847 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 13 $1,897 +$238 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 13 $1,523 +$374 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 13 $992 +$533 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 13 $502 −$502 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 13 $487 −$478 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 10? Jan 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 12 $713 −$713 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jan 11 $512 +$201 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jan 11 $481 +$31 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 11 $155 +$39 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 11 $304 +$139 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 11 $207 +$97 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $213 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $124 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $235 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $316 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $51 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $149 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $129 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $148 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $92 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $108 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $96 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records