Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe04b…71fb other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%15W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% $0
crypto 42% +$1
weather 6% $0
politics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 16 +1.0% -8.6% 94% 6% -8.6%
≤90d 16 +1.0% -8.6% 94% 6% -8.6%
all 16 +1.0% -8.6% 94% 6% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 6% -8.6%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×106.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1598.45 per $1 lost it wins $1598.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses15 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage25d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 29? May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? May 21 $7 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $8 21h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $7 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $6 8d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $8 10d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 12d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 29? SELL No 100¢ $7 14d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $7 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $6 17d
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 19d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 20d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? BUY No 88¢ $7 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.57 · official $5.57 (match) · 33 history records