Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe050…18cf crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized −$5 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%30W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$31
14 days−$30
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$45
crypto 10% −$5
other 3% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -6.5% -15.4% 80% 0% -22.6%
≤30d 7 -3.3% -12.5% 86% 0% -18.7%
≤90d 9 -13.7% -21.9% 67% 0% -19.4%
all 42 -2.2% -11.6% 71% 0% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -15.9%
10% -20.0% 0% -23.9%
15% -27.7% 0% -31.3%
20% -34.8% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses30 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage231d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 84¢ 74¢ $128 $112 −$16 (-12%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $74 −$38 -52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $37 +$2 +5%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $35 +$2 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $36 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $34 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $33 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8AM ET Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during the America Business Forum on Nov 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 04 $31 $0 +1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $240 in October? Nov 01 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Nov 01 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Nov 01 $1 $0 -11%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Oct 29 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - October 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Oct 29 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Oct 29 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Oct 29 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Oct 29 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - October 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Oct 29 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 29 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Oct 29 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Oct 29 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Oct 29 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Oct 29 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Oct 29 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Oct 29 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Oct 29 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Oct 29 $4 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Oct 29 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11PM ET Oct 29 $2 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - October 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Oct 29 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Oct 29 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Oct 29 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October Oct 28 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October Oct 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "War" 15+ times during Japan troop visit on October 28? Oct 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? Oct 07 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $128 45m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $128 46m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $135 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $135 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $99 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $99 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $200 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No $0 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 84¢ $35 26h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 34¢ $35 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 37¢ $39 31h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 82¢ $39 31h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $37 37h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 98¢ $37 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 94¢ $35 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 91¢ $36 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $38 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 86¢ $38 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 83¢ $36 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? SELL No 100¢ $36 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 94¢ $34 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 16d
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during the America Business Forum on SELL No 39¢ $2 222d
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during the America Business Forum on SELL Yes 61¢ $3 222d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $19 222d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? SELL No 40¢ $10 222d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? SELL No 40¢ $2 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.98 · official $111.98 (match) · 115 history records