Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe050…d7a9 crypto 175 markets active 6d ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,043 (-16%) realized −$1,051 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate15%76W / 446L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day77.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$158
other 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-70.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 379 -87.1% -88.3% 5% 5% -80.4%
≤30d 522 -67.7% -70.8% 15% 14% -46.0%
≤90d 522 -67.7% -70.8% 15% 14% -46.0%
all 522 -67.7% -70.8% 15% 14% -46.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -70.8% 14% -46.0%
10% ← realistic here -73.6% 13% -51.2%
15% -76.1% 12% -55.9%
20% -78.5% 12% -60.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$15 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$1,051
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses76 / 446
Open positions1
Markets (closed)522 / 175
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day77.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 522 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 440 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $36 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $37 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $37 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $39 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $30 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $29 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $28 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $34 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.39 · official $315.39 (match) · 3500 history records