Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe050…ed54 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$590 (-21%) realized −$590 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$381
14 days+$346
30 days−$639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$165
sports 23% −$396
crypto 2% −$28
world 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +14.2% +3.3% 32% 32% +11.0%
≤30d 33 -13.5% -21.7% 24% 24% -31.0%
≤90d 33 -13.5% -21.7% 24% 24% -31.0%
all 33 -13.5% -21.7% 24% 24% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 24% -31.0%
10% -29.2% 24% -37.6%
15% -36.0% 21% -43.6%
20% -42.3% 18% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$57 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$590
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 25
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage24d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $304 +$262 +86%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $50 −$18 -37%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$42 -82%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 21 $346 +$102 +30%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $252 −$8 -3%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 20 $101 +$73 +72%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 +$140 +273%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$130 -64%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$6 +109%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $246 −$239 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $244 −$238 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $516 −$507 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down $27 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes $10 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 20h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $32 20h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 23h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 53¢ $304 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $9 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 42h
Spain to win the second half? BUY Yes 77¢ $346 46h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 72¢ $245 46h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $252 46h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $31 46h
Germany to win the second half? SELL Yes 91¢ $175 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $191 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $10 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $69 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records