Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E0 0xe055…637a other 42 markets active 11h ago coverage 86d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$1,278 (+9%) realized +$2,542 · open −$1,264
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +86% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip
Net edge+68%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$838now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$554
7 days+$1,382
14 days+$1,382
30 days+$1,382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$523
other 48% +$386
crypto 1% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+67.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +274.7% +239.0% 75% 56% +1.7%
≤30d 16 +274.7% +239.0% 75% 56% +1.7%
≤90d 41 +85.6% +67.9% 46% 39% -2.2%
all 41 +85.6% +67.9% 46% 39% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +67.9% 39% -2.2%
10% +51.9% 37% -11.6%
15% +37.2% 34% -20.1%
20% +23.7% 34% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +86% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -40% → late +205% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$44 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$838
Realized+$2,542
Unrealized−$1,264
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage86d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 26¢ $2,102 $838 −$1,264 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$9 +84%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,187 +$133 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,227 −$40 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $502 +$72 +14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$84 +82%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,903 +$112 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,873 +$96 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$18 +88%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$173 +1685%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,452 +$199 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $221 +$231 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $101 −$3 -4%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$45 +88%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $127 +$555 +438%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $15 +$8 +52%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? Apr 29 $166 −$22 -13%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $93 −$2 -2%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $300 −$295 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 13 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $200 +$193 +96%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 04 $120 +$70 +58%
Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 21 $89 −$89 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $149 +$37 +25%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Score Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 21 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 20 $10 +$15 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 20 $6 +$6 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2,124 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 72¢ $101 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $101 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $19 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 53¢ $10 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,320 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,187 14h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 88¢ $2,187 14h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $2,227 14h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $574 15h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $502 18h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $185 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,015 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,903 27h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $1,969 37h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 94¢ $1,873 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 43¢ $38 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 42h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $184 44h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,640 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $145 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $905 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $402 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $452 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $99 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $98 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $837.93 · official $837.93 (match) · 83 history records