Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe055…24e5 weather 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%30W / 28L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 45% +$7
tech 39% −$2
other 15% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 31 +0.0% -9.5% 39% 0% -9.5%
all 58 +0.1% -9.5% 52% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses30 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage119d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 27 $161 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 22 $230 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $131 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $374 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $330 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 02 $364 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 26 $102 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $128 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma May 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $162 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $130 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1520-1559 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $116 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1920-1999 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $123 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 20? Apr 21 $228 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 11? Apr 13 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 8? Apr 10 $132 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 10 $134 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 6? Apr 08 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 7? Apr 08 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 5? Apr 06 $120 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on March 30? Apr 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on March 29? Apr 02 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on March 28? Mar 29 $120 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Mar 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 25 $101 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 23? Mar 24 $123 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 22 $121 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Mar 20 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 19? Mar 20 $228 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on March 17? Mar 18 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 16? Mar 18 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on Mar Mar 16 $228 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 15 $345 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Mar 14 $227 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $171 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 11? Mar 12 $227 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 10? Mar 10 $224 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 8? Mar 09 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 8? Mar 08 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 6? Mar 07 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 6? Mar 07 $223 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $160 1h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $161 3d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $117 5d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $117 7d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 8d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $113 10d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $160 12d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $160 14d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $131 14d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $131 17d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $131 18d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $131 19d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $190 20d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $190 21d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $130 22d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 23d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $107 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $107 26d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $130 27d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 28d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 29d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 30d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $102 32d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $102 33d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $139 34d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $139 35d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $128 37d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $128 40d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $162 41d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $162 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records