Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:09:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E0
0xe056…da17
other · 44 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
+$5 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses21 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage459d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 1 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 87¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $38 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $41 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $42 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $74 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 3? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 20 $1 $0 -23%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Wei Yi win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament? May 20 $1 $0 -43%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 18 $14 $0 +1%
Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 19 $3 $0 -9%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $7 $0 +2%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 Masters? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $3 −$1 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Apr 11? Apr 08 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 04 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump 10% blanket tariff go into effect by Saturday? Apr 04 $3 −$1 -20%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 30 $17 $0 +2%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 23 $1 $0 -50%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $13 +$1 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 17 $17 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? Mar 17 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14? Mar 12 $17 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $13 +$3 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% −$1
world 28% +$2
politics 16% $0
crypto 6% +$1
sports 5% +$4
finance 4% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $3 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $36 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $27 46h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $27 47h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $39 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $38 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $42 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $41 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $41 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $42 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 57¢ $38 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 56¢ $37 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $33 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $4 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $37 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $14 348d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $2 350d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $2 374d
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $14 388d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 388d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 388d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship SELL No 97¢ $5 388d
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 40¢ $2 388d
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 40¢ $6 388d
Will Wei Yi win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 388d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship BUY No 97¢ $5 389d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 60% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -8.7%
all 43 -4.1% -13.3% 49% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 2% -8.8%
10% -21.6% 0% -17.6%
15% -29.1% 0% -25.5%
20% -36.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.26 · official $39.26 (match) · 141 history records