Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe057…e08a crypto 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-3%) realized −$44 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%69W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$21
14 days−$0
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$170
other 0% −$3
economics 0% +$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -30.0% -36.6% 44% 44% -20.1%
≤30d 42 -25.1% -32.2% 48% 40% -22.1%
≤90d 158 -25.4% -32.5% 44% 37% -23.1%
all 158 -25.4% -32.5% 44% 37% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 37% -23.1%
10% -39.0% 30% -30.4%
15% -44.9% 24% -37.1%
20% -50.3% 18% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses69 / 89
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage53d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Up 56¢ 64¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Down 45¢ 36¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 17 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $31 +$9 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $33 −$11 -32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $50 −$28 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $37 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$20 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 02 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $36 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $16 +$10 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $31 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 31 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $5 +$7 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 29 $144 −$34 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 29 $71 +$19 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 29 $42 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 28 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 28 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 28 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 28 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 28 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 27 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 27 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 27 $15 +$11 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 27 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 27 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 27 $19 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 27 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 27 $32 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 26 $33 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 18 $7 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 18 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 18 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 18 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 18 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 18 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 17 $4 −$2 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 56¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 73¢ $16 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 46¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 55¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 93¢ $25 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 47¢ $15 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 46¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 90¢ $3 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 67¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 66¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 49¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 52¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 13¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 26¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 73¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 41¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 88¢ $43 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 51¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 53¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 41¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Down 58¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 34¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 53¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.04 · official $42.04 (match) · 484 history records