Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8.0
score
E0 0xe062…f949 sports 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$10,988 (+12%) realized +$10,539 · open +$449
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%59W / 51L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$807per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$960est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$999now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,987
7 days+$7,219
14 days+$7,739
30 days+$7,726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$2,951
other 21% +$11,633
world 4% +$14
politics 3% −$2,672
crypto 1% −$603
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +28.8% +16.6% 65% 65% +34.3%
≤30d 60 +7.5% -2.8% 53% 52% +6.8%
≤90d 107 +12.8% +2.0% 54% 52% +0.2%
all 110 +28.3% +16.0% 54% 52% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.0% 52% +3.8%
10% +4.9% 49% -6.2%
15% -5.2% 45% -15.2%
20% -14.5% 41% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$997) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +47% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$722 vs −$622 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$999
Realized+$10,539
Unrealized+$449
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses59 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$960
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage146d
Avg bet$807
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 100¢ $550 $999 +$449 (+82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,492 +$454 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,005 +$3,044 +152%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $435 −$435 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $2,038 −$1,821 -89%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $760 +$380 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,037 +$3,093 +152%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $520 +$272 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $354 +$161 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $538 +$1,406 +261%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,214 +$786 +65%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $328 −$175 -53%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $814 +$818 +100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $500 +$500 +100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $628 −$628 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $508 −$508 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $497 +$121 +24%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $209 −$209 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 +$197 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $477 +$393 +82%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $195 −$190 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $499 −$472 -95%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $441 −$439 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $498 −$488 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $758 −$436 -58%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,075 +$861 +80%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $567 −$441 -78%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $510 +$80 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $245 +$258 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $342 +$458 +134%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $867 +$921 +106%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $627 −$620 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $706 −$700 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $307 −$302 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $511 +$809 +158%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $519 +$330 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $620 +$179 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $514 +$531 +103%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $997 +$1,091 +109%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $502 −$502 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $507 −$500 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $225 +$488 +217%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 06 $405 −$71 -18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,109 −$601 -54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $1,517 −$1,501 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $512 +$537 +105%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $636 −$630 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $504 +$325 +64%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $204 +$246 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $103 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $140 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,000 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $703 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $557 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,492 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $2,005 5h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0 BUY 35¢ $990 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $277 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $123 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 26h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 7¢ $218 26h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $2,038 28h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $760 45h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 91¢ $10 47h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 91¢ $327 47h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 91¢ $455 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $2,037 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $520 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $514 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $354 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,944 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $538 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $1,214 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 29¢ $153 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $328 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $306 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 61¢ $723 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $999.49 · official $999.49 (match) · 438 history records