Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:20:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe062…a496 sports 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$979 (-6%) realized −$979 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate73%38W / 14L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$220
14 days−$1,301
30 days−$1,183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,083
other 4% +$1
crypto 3% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.3% -8.3% 77% 31% -3.9%
≤30d 52 +3.4% -6.4% 73% 38% -15.9%
≤90d 52 +3.4% -6.4% 73% 38% -15.9%
all 52 +3.4% -6.4% 73% 38% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 38% -15.9%
10% -15.4% 21% -24.0%
15% -23.5% 10% -31.3%
20% -31.0% 6% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$179 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$979
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses38 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage18d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $311 −$27 -9%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $279 +$32 +11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $269 +$9 +4%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $255 +$14 +6%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $235 +$20 +8%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $239 −$4 -2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $189 +$50 +27%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $135 +$54 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $429 +$13 +3%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $419 +$10 +2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $394 +$24 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $327 +$68 +21%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $387 −$60 -16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $376 +$11 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $355 +$21 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $324 +$31 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $300 +$24 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $275 +$25 +9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $250 +$26 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $188 +$61 +33%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $173 +$16 +9%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $133 +$40 +30%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $111 +$22 +20%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $43 +$68 +157%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $218 −$175 -80%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $193 +$25 +13%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1,178 −$985 -84%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $2,091 −$913 -44%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $1,971 +$121 +6%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $879 +$122 +14%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $811 +$68 +8%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $668 +$143 +21%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $649 +$19 +3%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $611 +$38 +6%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $101 +$34 +33%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $75 +$26 +35%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $57 +$18 +32%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $57 $0 +1%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 04 $49 +$8 +17%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $78 −$29 -37%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $20 +$7 +36%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $30 +$41 +137%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $116 −$91 -79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $240 −$125 -52%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? Jun 02 $5 +$4 +86%
Georgia vs. Romania: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $25 −$4 -18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $8 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 89¢ $283 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $311 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 89¢ $279 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $269 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $255 21h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $255 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $235 29h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 85¢ $235 29h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $239 38h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $189 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $135 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 28¢ $43 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $442 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $429 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $419 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $419 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $394 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $327 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 80¢ $327 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $387 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $387 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $376 7d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $355 7d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $355 8d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $324 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $300 8d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $275 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $250 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $250 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $188 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records