Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe065…d1de sports 184 markets active 0h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$137 (-1%) realized −$19 · open −$118
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%78W / 105L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$137
14 days+$218
30 days+$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$55
other 7% −$132
politics 5% −$134
crypto 1% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +11.3% +0.7% 33% 33% +6.1%
≤30d 13 +16.5% +5.4% 38% 38% +12.5%
≤90d 18 +23.7% +11.9% 44% 44% +13.6%
all 183 -6.8% -15.7% 43% 41% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 41% -10.4%
10% -23.7% 37% -19.0%
15% -31.1% 30% -26.8%
20% -37.9% 26% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +24% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$43 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses78 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 184
History coverage279d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ $120 $2 −$118 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 −$44 -22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $198 +$52 +27%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -15%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 +$119 +388%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 −$9 -18%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 +$70 +137%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 −$9 -19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 +$80 +79%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $25 +$15 +61%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M May 02 $20 +$14 +71%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 26 $10 +$22 +216%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $33 −$12 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 16 $47 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Atlanta United FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5 Mar 14 $100 −$19 -19%
Atlanta United FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $100 −$12 -12%
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union addr Feb 25 $20 +$51 +255%
Will Trump say "Biden" 10+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Feb 25 $50 +$41 +82%
Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game? Feb 25 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 25 $160 −$63 -40%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5 Feb 25 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "Egg" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during the 2026 State of the Un Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State Feb 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $100 +$39 +39%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 01 $403 −$27 -7%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $201 $0 +0%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $9 −$4 -44%
Miami vs. Indiana Jan 20 $654 +$42 +6%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 19 $423 +$96 +23%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 18 $124 +$22 +18%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 18 $108 −$108 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 18 $179 −$57 -32%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 18 $140 −$108 -77%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 17 $204 +$54 +26%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jan 17 $182 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 3m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $51 14m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 14m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $20 14m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 14m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $160 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 10h
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 3d
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 3d
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 79¢ $171 3d
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3d
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 79¢ $27 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $31 5d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 46¢ $30 5d
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 34¢ $42 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $51 5d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 40¢ $51 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $15 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 23¢ $3 5d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $121 5d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 41¢ $51 5d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 51¢ $41 5d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 61¢ $51 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $101 9d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 62¢ $25 42d
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M SELL Aljamain Sterling 63¢ $13 55d
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M BUY Aljamain Sterling 47¢ $20 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $22.00 · 798 history records