trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $44 | $44 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $3 | $0 | +9% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 10 | $47 | −$3 | -6% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 10 | $44 | −$1 | -2% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 09 | $21 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 09 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 08 | $45 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Dec 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? | Dec 11 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? | Dec 11 | $29 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jul 01 | $6 | −$4 | -62% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Canadian GP pole? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | May 31 | $23 | +$7 | +32% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? | May 19 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | May 18 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? | May 18 | $22 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? | May 18 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? | May 17 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | May 17 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Netherlands be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F | May 16 | $29 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | May 15 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 29% | 0% | -11.3% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 29% | 0% | -11.3% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 29% | 0% | -11.3% |
| all | 21 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 52% | 5% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.6% | 5% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -19.2% | 5% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -27.0% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -34.1% | 0% | -33.4% |