Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe068…c5ea weather 560 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$6,010 (-22%) realized −$5,812 · open −$198
Gross ROI / mkt +132% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +79% what you keep after slip
Net edge+79%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%230W / 134L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day169.1pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$23
other 19% +$1,152
weather 16% +$2,389
sports 7% +$530
politics 2% −$170
economics 1% +$3
finance 1% +$275
tech 1% +$14
crypto 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+110.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +217.7% +187.4% 39% 36% -4.2%
≤30d 364 +132.3% +110.2% 63% 44% +6.6%
≤90d 364 +132.3% +110.2% 63% 44% +6.6%
all 364 +132.3% +110.2% 63% 44% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +110.2% 44% +6.6%
10% ← realistic here +90.1% 41% -3.6%
15% +71.7% 37% -12.9%
20% +54.9% 34% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +132% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +129% → late +136% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$3 · ×7.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.78 per $1 lost it wins $12.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$631
Realized−$5,812
Unrealized−$198
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses230 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions347
Markets (closed)364 / 560
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day169.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 347 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GRVT launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $115 $115 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 63¢ 58¢ $53 $49 −$4 (-8%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 88¢ 97¢ $44 $48 +$4 (+10%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in June? No 85¢ 97¢ $37 $43 +$5 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $29 $22 −$7 (-23%)
Will Ben Olsen win 2026 MLS Coach of the Year? Yes 29¢ $0 $11 +$10 (+4725%)
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes $1 $9 +$8 (+530%)
Will Elly De La Cruz hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes $1 $9 +$8 (+758%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 78¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+28%)
Will Marcus Rashford join Al-Hilal? Yes 41¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+10187%)
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? Yes 73¢ 89¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.00 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? No 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will René Weiler win 2026 MLS Coach of the Year? Yes 29¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+4725%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+33%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June? No 63¢ 99¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+58%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 79¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 28 $1 +$18 +1609%
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Jun 28 $0 +$5 +3519%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $0 +$3 +980%
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 28 $0 +$79 +66152%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 28 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 28 $0 +$1 +514%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres Jun 28 $1 +$3 +650%
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 in June? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iran reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +98%
Will Saudi Arabia record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Federico Valverde record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 26 $2 $0 -1%
Will Iraq be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -42%
Will South Korea win the World Cup? Jun 26 $0 $0 +40%
Will Uruguay win the World Cup? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ivory Coast be the highest-scoring team in Group E during the Gro Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 25 $0 $0 +13%
Will 2+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $397 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +95%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? Jun 25 $2 +$52 +2354%
Will Saudi Arabia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 25 $2 $0 -11%
Will Iraq reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 25 $1 $0 -17%
Will Hannibal Mejbri record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FI Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 25 $1 $0 +41%
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will South Africa reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 25 $1 $0 +14%
Will Iraq be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Spain be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA World Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Jun 24 $1 +$1 +125%
Will Switzerland record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 24 $0 $0 +100%
Will Eloy Room record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 24 $0 $0 +198%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 24 $2 +$14 +770%
Will Curaçao be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Ekaterina Alexandrova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close Jun 24 $1 $0 +14%
Will Panama win the World Cup? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Pennsylvania in 2026? Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will Uzbekistan win the World Cup? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $0 $0 +150%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo record the most goal contributions at the 2026 Jun 23 $0 $0 +80%
Will Jordan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Jordan win the World Cup? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump meets with Putin by June 30? SELL Yes $1 39m
Will another team (incl. Lyon) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Robert Lewandowski join Borussia Dortmund? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Robert Lewandowski join Borussia Dortmund? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Robert Lewandowski join Borussia Dortmund? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Robert Lewandowski join Borussia Dortmund? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Robert Lewandowski join Borussia Dortmund? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Robert Lewandowski join Borussia Dortmund? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Robert Lewandowski join Borussia Dortmund? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Robert Lewandowski join Borussia Dortmund? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Robert Lewandowski join Borussia Dortmund? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Robert Lewandowski join Borussia Dortmund? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Robert Lewandowski join Borussia Dortmund? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will René Weiler win 2026 MLS Coach of the Year? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Ben Olsen win 2026 MLS Coach of the Year? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Switzerland win the World Cup? BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Luis Robert Jr. lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular BUY Yes $0 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $630.89 · official $623.73 · 3500 history records