Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:13:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe06a…ca30 sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$575 (+10%) realized +$581 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 31L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$269
7 days+$169
14 days+$759
30 days+$721
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$808
other 6% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -30.3% -37.0% 30% 30% -1.2%
≤30d 48 -19.4% -27.1% 35% 35% +2.8%
≤90d 48 -19.4% -27.1% 35% 35% +2.8%
all 48 -19.4% -27.1% 35% 35% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 35% +2.8%
10% -34.0% 35% -7.0%
15% -40.4% 33% -16.0%
20% -46.3% 31% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$65 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$581
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 31
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage24d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Blockx (+2.5) Blockx 51¢ 48¢ $113 $108 −$5 (-4%)
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Maja Chwalinska 51¢ 50¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $224 +$197 +88%
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Jun 28 $47 +$72 +153%
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 25 $48 −$47 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $101 −$99 -98%
Set Handicap: Begu (-1.5) vs Williams (+1.5) Jun 22 $55 +$48 +88%
Set 1 Winner: McDonald vs Alves Jun 22 $51 −$45 -88%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Ceban vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 22 $43 −$42 -97%
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Iliyan Radulov Jun 22 $55 −$54 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Ceban vs Baena Jun 22 $51 −$49 -98%
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) Jun 22 $69 −$69 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Pol Martin Tiffo Jun 22 $11 −$11 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 22 $234 +$281 +120%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Ostapenko vs Jones Jun 22 $71 −$69 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Dan Added Jun 22 $13 −$13 -97%
Set Handicap: Valentova (-1.5) vs Klugman (+1.5) Jun 22 $41 +$59 +146%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Clement Tabur Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith Jun 22 $71 −$69 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic Jun 22 $43 +$74 +171%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $260 −$82 -32%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova Jun 21 $60 −$59 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$11 -18%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $320 +$230 +72%
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Paul Jun 21 $23 +$45 +195%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $79 −$77 -98%
Set Handicap: Virtanen (-1.5) vs O'Connell (+1.5) Jun 20 $198 +$140 +70%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $178 +$139 +78%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Ziga Sesko Jun 20 $17 −$17 -99%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi Jun 20 $178 −$174 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $99 −$97 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $687 +$258 +38%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $100 −$99 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jun 19 $645 +$391 +61%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 19 $101 −$99 -98%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $95 −$93 -98%
Set Handicap: Virtanen (-1.5) vs Harris (+1.5) Jun 18 $129 −$127 -99%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $249 +$287 +115%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $53 −$52 -97%
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Klugman (+1.5) Jun 18 $91 −$89 -98%
Set Handicap: Korneeva (-1.5) vs Kubka (+1.5) Jun 18 $50 +$62 +124%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $97 +$235 +242%
Makarska: Akasha Urhobo vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 04 $258 −$253 -98%
Birmingham: Filippo Romano vs Otto Virtanen Jun 04 $49 −$8 -16%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 04 $14 +$3 +23%
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Barbora Palicova Jun 04 $87 +$220 +253%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert SELL Zizou Bergs 88¢ $82 30m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert SELL Zizou Bergs 89¢ $125 32m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 48¢ $115 39m
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) SELL Bergs 99¢ $120 39m
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 51¢ $94 41m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert SELL Zizou Bergs 46¢ $95 42m
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Blockx (+2.5) BUY Blockx 51¢ $89 52m
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Blockx (+2.5) BUY Blockx 50¢ $25 52m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert SELL Zizou Bergs 35¢ $93 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert SELL Zizou Bergs 33¢ $26 1h
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) BUY Bergs 40¢ $41 1h
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) BUY Bergs 32¢ $6 1h
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) BUY Bergs 32¢ $0 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 15¢ $51 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 25¢ $59 2h
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez BUY Bruno Fernandez 21¢ $48 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies $3 4d
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Venus Williams 48¢ $101 5d
Set Handicap: Begu (-1.5) vs Williams (+1.5) SELL Williams 99¢ $104 5d
Set 1 Winner: McDonald vs Alves SELL Alves $1 5d
Set Handicap: Begu (-1.5) vs Williams (+1.5) BUY Williams 52¢ $55 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Ceban vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Mark Ceban $43 5d
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Iliyan Radulov BUY Iliyan Radulov 14¢ $55 5d
Set 1 Winner: Ceban vs Baena BUY Ceban 24¢ $1 5d
Set 1 Winner: Ceban vs Baena BUY Ceban 24¢ $49 5d
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) BUY Jones 28¢ $11 5d
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) BUY Jones 28¢ $39 5d
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) BUY Jones 28¢ $19 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Pol Martin Tiffo BUY Gilles Arnaud Bailly $11 5d
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 54¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.34 · official $199.34 (match) · 155 history records