Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:12:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe06a…0851 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate15%6W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$2
other 26% −$1
sports 6% $0
politics 4% −$3
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 18 -1.2% -10.6% 28% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 18 -1.2% -10.6% 28% 0% -9.7%
all 41 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses6 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage266d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $52 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $49 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $94 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $51 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $59 −$3 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $57 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $21 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $52 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $65 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $8 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $87 +$2 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $57 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 27 $18 −$3 -17%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $80 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $17 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $5 $0 -1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 01 $2 $0 +20%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $51 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $52 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $47 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $18 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $11 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $18 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $32 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $31 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $52 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $29 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $22 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $56 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $59 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $49 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $57 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $5 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $19 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $40 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.00 · official $3.00 (match) · 164 history records