Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe06b…5419 other 256 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$21
14 days−$32
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$45
sports 20% −$19
politics 9% −$7
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 255 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)255 / 256
History coverage135d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 17 $261 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $254 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $650 −$2 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $206 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $660 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $492 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $122 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $679 −$2 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $642 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $147 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $129 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $395 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $482 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $321 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $333 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $268 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $581 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $137 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $827 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $132 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $438 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $214 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $463 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $66 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $308 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $325 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $316 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $20 2h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 5h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 8h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $58 8h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $58 9h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 11h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 12h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 14h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 15h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 21h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 22h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 24h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $59 25h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 26h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 27h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $59 32h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $59 33h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $10 36h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 38h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 39h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 41h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 42h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 43h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 46h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.04 · official $58.04 (match) · 1392 history records