Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8.0
score
E0 0xe075…a98c other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 1051d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$11,600 (+18%) realized +$10,468 · open +$1,132
Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +53% what you keep after slip
Net edge+53%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$1,329per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$25,698now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$310
7 days+$1,359
14 days+$1,359
30 days+$1,359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$4,345
politics 9% +$8,377
sports 9% −$494
world 8% −$812
crypto 4% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+59.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +13.9% +3.1% 57% 57% +6.7%
≤30d 14 +13.9% +3.1% 57% 57% +6.7%
≤90d 14 +13.9% +3.1% 57% 57% +6.7%
all 29 +76.0% +59.3% 52% 48% +15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.3% 48% +15.9%
10% +44.0% 45% +4.8%
15% +30.1% 45% -5.3%
20% +17.3% 34% -14.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +76% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,636) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +146% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,050 vs −$400 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1051d coverage
Net worth$25,698
Realized+$10,468
Unrealized+$1,132
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions18
Markets (closed)29 / 49
History coverage1051d
Avg bet$1,329
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $5,000 $5,709 +$709 (+14%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $5,000 $5,102 +$102 (+2%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $4,000 $4,761 +$761 (+19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2,000 $2,295 +$295 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2,000 $1,685 −$315 (-16%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 53¢ 90¢ $676 $1,155 +$479 (+71%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $1,000 $1,075 +$75 (+7%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $500 $677 +$177 (+35%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 38¢ $500 $613 +$113 (+23%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 35¢ $600 $512 −$88 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $500 $486 −$14 (-3%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $500 $405 −$95 (-19%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $223 $222 −$2 (-1%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 62¢ $100 $171 +$71 (+71%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $510 $102 −$408 (-80%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 80¢ 50¢ $127 $79 −$49 (-38%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 46¢ 10¢ $250 $52 −$198 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $539 +$590 +109%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $960 −$960 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $706 +$294 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $318 +$182 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $239 −$32 -14%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $910 +$497 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $513 −$500 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,018 +$1,421 +140%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$492 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $505 +$220 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$337 +165%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 20 $1,000 −$324 -32%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 10 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 18 $3,900 +$3,645 +94%
US-Iran nuclear deal before August? Sep 18 $2,900 +$14 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jul 30 $1,700 −$40 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jul 28 $2,465 $0 -0%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q3 2025? Jul 26 $3,318 +$130 +4%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 12 $7,737 +$1,369 +18%
Will Nikita Bier be the next CEO of X? Jul 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 25 $2,000 +$4,732 +237%
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 24 $412 −$412 -100%
Will Pump.fun launch a token by June 30? Jun 19 $1,201 −$605 -50%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q2 2025? Jun 05 $1,768 +$1,285 +73%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Jun 03 $1,636 −$1,224 -75%
Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? Nov 26 $1,098 +$537 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $511 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $539 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $960 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 40¢ $905 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $706 40h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY $514 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $206 41h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $92 43h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $92 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $318 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $239 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1,013 46h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $910 46h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $513 46h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $1,018 2d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $225 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $508 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $505 9d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 87¢ $1,004 9d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 36¢ $102 9d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $525 9d
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes 25¢ $102 9d
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $511 9d
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $611 9d
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $510 9d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $5,006 10d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $4,035 10d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $5,049 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,697.91 · official $25,697.91 (match) · 220 history records