Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe078…0de5 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$678 (-3%) realized +$166 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$972per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,387
7 days+$756
14 days+$1,224
30 days−$840
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$1,382
other 23% +$525
crypto 12% −$44
sports 12% −$1,589
politics 0% −$100
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-44.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -55.9% -60.1% 25% 25% -0.2%
≤30d 10 -64.4% -67.8% 20% 20% -15.8%
≤90d 24 -38.8% -44.6% 33% 29% -7.6%
all 24 -38.8% -44.6% 33% 29% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.6% 29% -7.6%
10% -49.9% 21% -16.4%
15% -54.8% 12% -24.5%
20% -59.2% 8% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,024) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$540 vs −$260 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage49d
Avg bet$972
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? No $401 $0 −$401 (-100%)
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? Yes 18¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Vitality 17¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? Yes 11¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? No $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? No $512 $0 −$512 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? Yes 11¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? Yes $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? Yes $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Yes 27¢ $146 $0 −$146 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C or higher on April 29? Yes $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $6,636 +$1,387 +21%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $67 −$50 -75%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 −$70 -70%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $537 −$512 -95%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $419 −$401 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,909 +$869 +46%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $55 −$55 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $1,167 −$1,106 -95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 15 $1,190 −$851 -72%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? May 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? May 13 $222 −$115 -52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $205 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 03 $274 +$568 +207%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $762 +$966 +127%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $1,337 −$452 -34%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $622 +$178 +29%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $817 +$85 +10%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $198 +$35 +18%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $1,024 +$236 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C or higher on April 29? Apr 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 28 $5,436 −$6 -0%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 27 $33 −$31 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $4,000 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $2,600 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $2,987 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,043 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $49 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $960 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $732 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $82 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $21 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $36 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $1,014 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $22 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $1,000 1h
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? SELL No $7 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? SELL No $10 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? SELL No $30 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No $12 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No $0 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No $54 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 254 history records