Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

E0 0xe079…3f53 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$38 (-24%) realized −$38 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 183d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-38.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-9.3%	-17.9%	33%	33%	+53.2%
≤30d	3	-9.3%	-17.9%	33%	33%	+53.2%
≤90d	3	-9.3%	-17.9%	33%	33%	+53.2%
all	4	-31.9%	-38.4%	25%	25%	+13.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-38.4%	25%	+13.1%
10%	-44.3%	25%	+2.3%
15%	-49.7%	25%	-7.6%
20%	-54.6%	25%	-16.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +50% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -32% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$88 vs −$25 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.16 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$38

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage183d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$51	+$88	+172%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$6	−$6	-97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$75	−$40	-54%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	Dec 20	$29	−$29	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$139	1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$6	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	15¢	$26	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	15¢	$32	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	22¢	$50	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	36¢	$51	2h
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	BUY Yes	9¢	$29	183d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records